Predictions for the 2012 Election - Part #1

This is Part #1 of a two part article: Part #1 deals with my predictions as to the results of the 2012 national elections while Part #2 deals with my predictions of what the Republican response to the elections will be

© Josh Sager – September 2012

2012 Predictions

Presidential: When one considers the recent likely voter poll numbers, it appears that Obama has a very good chance of being re-elected during the 2012 election. These polls show that Obama not only holds a national lead, but also significant leads Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Romney’s Libya embassy comments and the mid-September release of the “47% Tape” are both significant strikes against his candidacy and only solidify the prediction that the Romney candidacy will result in failure. I predict that Obama will win the election by carrying the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Romney will lose the election, but will carry the states of Florida (depending upon voter disenfranchisement measures), North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

Senate: While polling at the beginning of 2012 suggested that Republicans would retake the Senate, it now appears that momentum has stalled and that the Republicans are unlikely to make significant gains. I predict that Democrats will hold onto the senate in 2012, and will remain in control without a super-majority (it is impossible for the Democrats to capture 60 seats)—the likely result of the elections is that between 51 and 53 Democrats (counting Bernie Sanders as a Democrat) and 49-47 Republicans will be elected to the Senate in 2012.

House: During the 2010 election, the Republicans and Tea Party (inasmuch as there is any real distinction) took a vast majority of the House and swept many Democrats and moderate Republicans out of office; this right wing tide was largely due to Democratic demobilization and high levels of Republican voter turnout, thus it is unsustainable for the 2012 election. Since getting into office, these congressman have become immensely unpopular and have presided over the lowest public opinion numbers of any congress in the history of public opinion polling (by some polls, they had a 9% approval rating at their lowest). Due to the presidential coattails effect, Democratic voters will come out to vote in 2012 at much higher numbers than in 2010 and control of the house will become contested. I predict that the Republicans will retain the house, but only by a margin of less than ten seats (probably on the lower side of this prediction).\; the areas which they suffer most will be the marginal areas (purple states) where a disproportionately large amount of Republicans were elected during the 2010 election.